Renewable Energy – December 2017

Alexandros Daniilidis, Betül Alpsoy, and Rien Herber, University of Groningen

This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of a deep, direct use geothermal heat system in a conductive geological setting (Groningen, NE Netherlands). The model integrates the previously discussed uncertainties of the initial reservoir state, geological and operational conditions with the economic uncertainties. These uncertainties are incorporated in the form of probability distributions and 20,000 iterations of the model are performed over a project lifetime of 40 years. A combination of Ex-Ante and Ex-Post criteria are used to evaluate the economic performance of the system based on the Net Present Value (NPV), Levelised Cost of Heat (LCOH) and Expected Monetary Value (EMV).

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Publication for the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA-CN-226-34 – June 2015

R. Stoll, J. Greeves, and J. Voss with Predicus LLC, USA; A. Keizur and A. Neir with Golder Associates Inc., USA; N. Saraeva and W. Nutt with Argonne National Laboratory, USA

An Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) capability and tool is being developed to evaluate alternative execution strategies for future deployment of a consolidated Interim Storage Facility (ISF) using a consent-based siting process per the Administration’s Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste. Application of an ESA approach not only leverages on but also goes beyond traditional project analysis tools. The ESA tool allows for on-going performance assessment of the evolving project execution plan that takes into account significant assumptions, risks, and uncertainties throughout the project lifecycle. The ESA process and tool are used to support the development of plans, budgets, and alternative execution/ implementation strategies for meeting the goals in the Strategy. The project is being applied in a dynamic probabilistic simulation model using GoldSim.

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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences – February 2014

Ðurdica Stojanovic, Emilija Nikolic-Ðoric, University of Novi Sad

This paper explores the impact of time demand characteristics in supply chain on role of own-account fleet in the optimal transport sourcing mix. Multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate the simulation and optimization results, and the historical database of a real trade company. The regression analysis reveals that the certain indicators of demand variability and uncertainty directly impact on the optimal number of vehicles in own-account fleet. Further, the intercept in regression equation for the dependent variable number of own-account vehicles can be expressed as the function of daily demands and fleet characteristics.

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Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics Working Paper, ISSN: 1827/3580 No. 02/WP/2013 – January 2013

Jerome Massiani with Universita Ca' Foscari di Venezia and Jorg Radeke of Berlin Economics GmbH

Policies toward the diffusion of Electric Vehicles (EV) received a lot of attention in recent years in many developed countries. In this paper, we review different existing models and present a simulation tool for the assessment of EV policies in Germany. This model, which was built in GoldSim incorporates detailed representation of the various technological, behavioral and economical mechanisms that govern the possible diffusion of EV in Germany.

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Online Presentation, ASU Decision Center – January 2013

Mohammed Mahmoud, Central Arizona Project

This presentation is a summary of Central Arizona Project's "On-River Model", which was built in GoldSim to analyze system capacity in response to seasonal variations in demand, canal and reservoir operation rules, and optimization of power consumption.

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WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – February 2012

David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T. Greeves, R. Ian Miller, and W. Mark Nutt

The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM’s projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM “owns” a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D&D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors.

PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures.

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WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – February 2012

David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T . Greeves, Predicus LLC; R. Ian Miller, GoldSim Technology Group; W. Mark Nutt, Argonne National Laboratory

The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks.

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Report prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contract No. NRC–02–07–006 – August 2011

Chris Markley et al. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

This document is a user guide that describes the operation and capabilities of the Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk (SOAR) model. The SOAR model is designed to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff timely risk and performance insights for a variety of potential high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal options. The SOAR model is an analytic scoping tool that the staff will use to develop an effective and efficient risk-informed, performance-based licensing program for geologic disposal of HLW.

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WM2010 Conference – March 2010

John T. Greeves and Ralph Stoll, Predicus LLC, John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

Government and commercial nuclear projects have been criticized for the lack of a formal risk-based decision support tool for use in properly prioritizing large projects with significant uncertainties. Predicus LLC collaborated with the GoldSim Technology Group LLC to develop this state-of-the-art process to address this need for both government and commercial clients. Predicus LLC was supported by Neptune and Company to develop the specific example shown in this paper.

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Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Remediation And Radioactive Waste Management ICEM 2009 – October 2009

Yongsoo Hwang and Ian Miller

This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea.

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Master's Thesis, University of Nevada – December 2008

Dan Andersen, CH2M Hill

As population growth increases, additional demands are placed on existing highway systems. Reconfiguring intersections and roadways to limit the number of access points to a particular roadway reduces congestion and has been shown to increase safety. This paper describes a GoldSim model that was created to try and quantify the environmental benefits (due to reduced emissions) and the economic impacts on businesses in areas where access management techniques were applied.

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Proceedings of the SimTecT 2008 Simulation Conference and Exhibition – May 2008

David Urquhart and Debbie Richards, Macquarie University

The field of Human Resource Management (HRM) addresses issues such as staff costs, performance and turnover – all of which have a basis in uncertainty. In this paper we employ GoldSim Monte Carlo simulated real options to determine the value of HRM policies.

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Proceedings of the 2003 International Ash Utilization Symposium – April 2005

Todd Stong and Ron Jorgenson, Golder Associates; Russ Nelson and Tony Stroh, Great River Energy

This paper describes a model built to evaluate management plans for coal combustion process in light of market conditions and pending EPA regulations.

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