Flood Risk Assessment From a Dam Breach
A dam is simulated under possible breach conditions. If the dam breaks, a flood hydrograph is produced and routed down a channel. If the peak flow in the channel exceeds 150,000 cfs, it is considered a failure as property will be damaged. The expected opportunity loss is calculated as a function of the risk.
The dam breach is calculated using the empirical formula published in Fread and Harbaugh (1973) and Fread (1988). The river routing is done using Muskingum routing as documented for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by Texas A&M University.
The dam breach and river routing is performed inside of a sub-model so that the probability of failure (risk) can be exported to the main level of the model and used to calculate the expected opportunity loss.
Also included is a HECRAS model that can be used to check the validity of the dam break results of this GoldSim model.
Main Model Screen Capture Image:
Dam Break Calculations Screen Capture Image:
Dam Break Hydrograph Percentiles:
Reservoir Volume Plot: